More than previously estimated: Earth may have 11 billion people by 2100

A new study says that should the current trends hold, the world’s population will grow from 7.2 billion to 11 billion by 2100.

17:26 19 September 2014

A new study published in Science argued that the world’s population is likely to increase from 7.2 billion to 11 billion by 2100 should the current trends hold.

This contradicts previous forecasts that suggested the world’s population will peak at 9 billion people by 2050 and then start falling.

The study, which was conducted by researchers at the United Nations and University of Washington, argued that there is a 70per cent chance that the world’s population will keep growing this century – without peaking.

They explained that contrary to what was previously predicted, the birth rates in sub-Saharan Africa haven’t fallen quickly primarily because deaths from HIV/AIDS have gone down significantly. Currently, Africa is home to an estimated 1.1 billion people and researchers predict that by the end of the century, the population will swell between 3.5 and 5.1 billion.

However, this prediction was contradicted by another paper that was published in Population and Development Review, which argued that African fertility rates are likely to decline sharply in the future as education rises, particularly among women.