Donald Trump May to Pose an Existential Threat to Europe

In the year since he took office as President of the United States, Donald Trump has proven to be far more competent than people had thought.

21:44 27 February 2018

He demonstrates almost every day that he is not a normal politician.  Politicians usually are concerned with their next election campaign.  Donald Trump seems oblivious to his next campaign which, if he decides to run for the presidency again, would begin in 2019 but would take full flight in 2020.

 

The American political system is not fractured like it is in Europe.  There are only two political parties to speak of.  Their system is designed so that neither party has a long-term foothold on power.  Whereas in Europe, the executive of the government is also a member of Parliament, that is not the case in America.  So the president often has half the legislature from his party and the other half from the opposition party.

 

Donald Trump has proven that he doesn’t even need full support from his own party.  Even during the campaign, many erstwhile Republicans announced that they were voting for Hillary Clinton including both former President Bushes.

 

In what way, then, should Europe be concerned with the nascent presidency of Donald Trump?

The Far Right

 

Donald Trump has galvanized a far right movement in the US whether by design or not.  The far right in the US has always been weak but, just as in Europe, it is populated by totalitarians of the neo-Nazi or neo-Fascist political bent.

 

The continued growth of far right political groups in America will embolden our own far right parties and, as our politics are more driven by small parties than the American system, this expansion of the xenophobic and racist right portends bad days ahead in European national politics.

 

Populism

 

This can be either of the left or of the right.  The most famous populism in American political history was the forerunner of today’s far left progressive movement.

 

However, populism in Europe is almost always of the political right so it goes hand in hand with the far right movements cited above.  Brexit is a signal that far right populism may undo everything we have worked so hard for in Europe in the decades since the last great war.

 

Another aspect of populism, albeit a relatively trivial one, is the possibility that the US will reopen itself to online casinos - in much the same way that Aussie online casinos are open to its citizens.  The US has a law that makes it difficult for Americans to gamble online but there are indications that this law may be revised.  There is also the strong possibility that online sports betting may become legal as early as this spring.  Combined, these two possibilities would cut into the profits of online betting venues in Europe and would cause tax revenues to flow out of Europe and into the US treasury.

 

NATO

 

Trump has said that he wants Europe to pay more for its own defence.  There may be justification for this position but it is undeniable that Europe is ill equipped to assume more of its own defence whether financially or militarily.  There are not enough young men and women in Europe to take on the defence of such a vast land area.

 

Forcing Europe to assume a greater financial burden could be the financial ruin of Europe.  Forcing Europe to take upon itself to train soldiers to replace American soldiers would put a massive strain on an already troublesome continental birth rate.

 

Without NATO, Europe would be helpless in the face of a large, equipped, well-trained, and determined enemy.  We may not know the name of the enemy yet but our history has shown that when there is room for an enemy to enter and thrive, an enemy always pops up.

 

United Nations

 

Trump has been critical of the UN since he took office.  He also wants the countries of the world to take upon themselves a larger portion of the costs of running the UN.

The UN does much good work but the countries of the world are no match for the US in their ability to fund the vast scope of the UN.  If Trump follows through on threats to reduce American support for the UN, it could spell the end of the organization entirely.

 

Iran

 

Iran is merely one salient in the overall conflict between Moslem countries and societies and the rest of the world.  Trump is using the treaty that President Obama signed with Europe as a wedge to undermine efforts of all nations to find common cause with each other.

 

Trump has also threatened the Palestinians by reducing financial aid and by committing the US to move its embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.  As the Middle East heats up once again, we can expect some of the protests to spill over into Europe.

 

It’s clear that Trump doesn’t understand the challenges Europe faces in the near and far future regarding relations with Moslems both in and outside of the continent.

 

Climate Change

 

Trump is on record as denying the long-term threat that climate change poses for Europe and the rest of the world.  Climate change may be a continuation of global warming with catastrophic results but it could also mean enough loss of ice from the far north of the Atlantic Ocean as to change the Gulf Stream which would, ironically, lead to massive cooling in the Northern Hemisphere especially in Europe which today enjoys relatively mild winters because of the effect of the Gulf Stream.

 

That’s why the term global warming gave way about twenty years ago to the more accurate climate change.  Trump threatens everyone’s way of life by denying the effect of the massive influx of greenhouse gasses especially from the US.

 

Tax Cut

 

Trump shepherded a massive tax cut for American businesses and wage earners.  The result will be much larger growth in the US economy at the expense of Europe and Asia in particular.  Money will flow into the US, money that might otherwise finance business in Europe.

 

Conclusion

 

Clearly, Donald Trump is no fool.  We were the fools to think that he would quickly fall flat on his face and resign his office.  All signs indicate eight years of a Donald Trump presidency.  If his first year in office is any indication, these next seven years may be very difficult indeed for Europe.