NAP of the Day vs. Dark Horses – Should You Always Trust the Favourite?

In a sport with so many variables, the market leader wins roughly one out of every three races, which is a reasonable strike rate.

22:21 26 March 2025

Ask any horse racing fan about their biggest dilemma and most will tell you the same thing – do I play it safe with the favourite or risk it all on a longshot? It's the age-old question that racing punters have wrestled with since betting began.

Most racing fans start their day by scanning the papers or websites for expert opinions. The naps table provides a quick look at which horses the pros are backing today. These picks are made by racing journalists who spend their lives studying form, but even they disagree on the "sure things".

When Favourites Make Sense

Let's face it: favourites win more races than any other horse. In a sport with so many variables, the market leader wins roughly one out of every three races, which is a reasonable strike rate. When it comes to favoritism, the general public usually gets it right. These horses frequently have the best recent form, strong connections, and proven track and distance ability. There's a good reason a horse is at the top of the market when it checks all these boxes.

A NAP is a tipster's most confident selection for the day. These selections are based on extensive research of past performances, weight assignments, trainer and jockey statistics, and track suitability. The term comes from the card game Napoleon, where a player's best hand was called a "nap."

The Problem With Short Prices

The disadvantage of backing favourites is obvious: you won't get rich doing it. When everyone wants to bet on the same horse, bookmakers reduce the odds until there is almost no value left.

Even the best favourites lose more frequently than they win. This harsh reality requires you to be extremely particular about which short-priced horses deserve your money. A losing favourite wipes out multiple winning bets at 1/2 or even.

The general public does not always get things right. Horses can be over-bet based on name recognition, prior hype, or connections rather than current performance. These false favourites provide poor value and deplete betting bankrolls faster than anything else.

Why Longshots Are Worth a Look

Dark horses, or unfancied runners who command high prices, provide ordinary punters with a chance at extraordinary profits. We've all seen 20/1 or 33/1 shots come home, converting a small bet into a significant win.

Racing thrives on unpredictability. There seems to be at least one outcome every weekend that leaves gamblers baffled and tearing up their tickets. These surprises are not as uncommon as the odds show. Some horses perform much better than their prices indicate. Maybe they're returning from a layoff, trying a new distance, or getting a rider change. The betting public frequently overreacts to a horse's recent poor performance while ignoring its positive attributes.

Finding Hidden Gems

The true skill in betting comes from identifying horses whose chances are better than their odds suggest. This "value" approach separates professionals from amateurs in the betting world.

Examining form in greater detail frequently reveals interesting angles. A horse may have been blocked in the straight last time, carried too much weight, or raced on unsuitable ground. Some trainers deserve extra attention when their horses are at big odds because they may not have the largest stables or most well-known names, but they know how to position their horses to win when the time is right. Following these shrewd operators can lead to prices that make no sense based on actual chances.

Different Races, Different Strategies

Handicap races and maiden events require completely different approaches. In handicaps, the system tries to give every horse an equal chance through weight allocations. This levels the playing field and often makes favourites vulnerable.

Maidens for unraced or lightly-raced horses create guessing games where the market frequently gets it wrong. Without solid form to analyse, punters rely on whispers and stable reputation, creating situations where favourites are backed more on hope than evidence.

Big field races almost always present opportunities for upsets. With twenty runners charging around tight turns, even the best horse needs luck. Traffic problems, pace scenarios, and tactical errors make these events perfect for seeking value beyond the obvious choices.

Weather and Track Factors

Form books should be discarded as things change. When it rains, a firm ground specialist may appear to be a completely different horse. Smart bettors always check ground preferences before backing any horse, regardless of price. Some tracks strongly favor specific running styles or front-runners rule at some venues, while others prefer closers who finish strongly. These biases can completely undermine favoritism or increase the chances of underdog runners who fit the track profile.

Some horses are significantly affected by seasonal patterns. Some runners perform best in spring, while others need summer conditions. The racing schedule sets windows of opportunity for horses to surpass their market value under ideal circumstances.

Mixing It Up Makes Sense

Smart betting combines strategies based on specific race situations. Back favourites when they offer genuine value, and take chances on longshots when conditions favor them. Good betting demands honest race assessment - sometimes favourites truly deserve their status at fair prices, while other times they look beatable with better-valued alternatives available.

In the long run, money management is more important than selection strategy. Professional bettors vary their stakes according to odds and confidence rather than flat betting across all selections. This proportional approach shields bankrolls during inevitable losing periods while maximizing returns when strong opportunities arise.

The Bottom Line

The favourite versus longshot question has no definitive answer. Racing's appeal comes from its unpredictability, with surprising outcomes that keep the sport fascinating.

Successful bettors typically adopt flexible approaches that blend elements from both strategies. They acknowledge the statistical advantage favourites hold while staying vigilant for situations where the market misjudges an outsider's chances. Racing's essence lies in solving these handicapping puzzles. Whether you prefer shorter prices or longshot thrills, success comes from identifying horses whose true winning chances exceed their offered odds.